FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX OUTLOOK

Original Paper

UDC 911.3:338.45:620.91(100) © N.P. Persteneva A. Yu.A. Tokarev, Gorbunova, O.V. Kravchenko, 2022

ISSN 0041-5790 (Print) • ISSN 2412-8333 (Online) • Ugol’ – Russian Coal Journal, 2022, № 12, pp. 40-43

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18796/0041-5790-2022-12-40-43

Title

FORECASTING THE CONSUMPTION OF THE MAIN ENERGY RESOURCES IN THE WORLD

Authors

Persteneva N.P.1, ,Tokarev Yu.A.1, Gorbunova O.A.1, Kravchenko O.V.1

1Samara State University of Economics», Samara, 443100, Russian Federation

Authors Information

Persteneva N.P., PhD (Economic), Associate Professor Department of Statistics and Econometrics, e-mail: persteneva_np@mail.ru

Tokarev Y.A.,PhD (Economic), Associate Professor Department of Statistics and Econometrics, e-mail: tokarev_ya@mail.ru

Gorbunova O.A., PhD (Economic), Associate Professor, Head of the Department of National and World Economy, e-mail: genuka76@mail.ru

Kravchenko O.V., PhD (Economic), Associate Professor Department of National and World Economy,e-mail: zav06@mail.ru

Abstract

This article discusses the issues of statistical assessment of the dynamics and forecasting of the consumption of the main types of energy resources in the leading countries of the world. The work used methods of statistical modeling and forecasting of time series. The study is based on data from international energy statistics for 84 countries. The main attention was paid to the study of trends in the consumption of coal, natural gas and refined petroleum products. Time series analysis is performed, point and interval forecast is made. As a result of the study, it was concluded that over the past 30 years, energy resources such as gas and gasoline have tended to increase consumption, and coal after a period of growth at the end of the 20th century has become less in demand in the economy.  We can say that the time for green energy has not yet come, and the political and economic instability in the world increases the demand for non-renewable energy sources.

Keywords

Fuel and energy resources, Dynamics, Trend, Point and interval forecast, Statistics.

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For citation

Persteneva N.P., Tokarev Yu.A.,Gorbunova O.A., Kravchenko O.V.Forecasting the consumption of the main energy resources in the world. Ugol’, 2022, (12), pp. 40-43. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.18796/0041-5790-2022-12-40-43.

Paper info

ReceivedAugust 3, 2022

Reviewed October 31, 2022

Accepted November 25, 2022